2020 CA Democratic Primary Post-Debate

February 29th, 2020

Bernie Sanders maintains his 20-point lead in the California Democratic Primary with 34.1 percent of the vote, according to Point Blank Political’s latest post-debate poll. Sanders’ support is largely unchanged since PBP’s pre-debate poll when he was supported by 33.6 percent of likely voters. Warren maintains her second-place position with 14 percent of the vote; however, Warren is tied with Joe Biden who is also in second place with 14 percent of the vote. Joe Biden had the largest increase compared to PBP’s pre-debate poll, resulting in him leapfrogging Michael Bloomberg in the rankings. After Sanders, Warren, and Biden, Bloomberg is the only candidate in double-digits. Bernie Sanders is still the only candidate above the 15-percent threshold. None of the candidate’s changes were statistically significant. The poll had a sample size of 2276, the data was collected from February 26th-28th, and the margin of error is 2.9 percent (95% confidence interval).

The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The model’s weighting efficiency was 48 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or over represented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.

For general inquires, contact us: polls@PointBlankPolitical.com
For statistical inquires, contact Michael Havlin: Michael@PointBlankPolitical.com