2020 CA Democratic Primary Pre-Debate

February 26th, 2020

Bernie Sanders holds a commanding 20-point lead in the California Democratic Primary, according to a poll commissioned and conducted by Point Blank Political. Leading the race with 33.6 percent of the vote, Sanders is the only candidate to clear 15 percent in the poll. Elizabeth Warren is in a distant 2nd place with 13.1 percent of the vote, and Michael Bloomberg is close behind Warren in third place with 10.6 percent of the vote. The poll had a large sample size of 2098. Sanders support is driven by youth voters and Latino voters; Sanders was supported by 48.6 percent of Latino voters, and 65 percent of voters under the age of 30. The margin of error (95 percent interval) for the top-level estimate is 3.0 percent but may be higher for certain subgroups.

The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and education using a Random Iterative Model. The model’s weighting efficiency was 50 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being initially tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or overrepresented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.

For general inquires, contact us: polls@pointblankpolitical.com
For statistical inquires, contact Michael Havlin: michael@pointblankpolitical.com