2020 FL Democratic Primary Poll

March 9th, 2020

Joe Biden has a commanding 29-point lead in the Florida Democratic Primary, according to a poll conducted by Point Blank Political. In a nine-person race, Biden gets 55 percent of the vote to Sanders’ 29.1 percent. In a two-person race, Biden gets 61 percent to Sanders’ 32 percent. Crosstab data suggest that Biden will get most of Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar’s supporters, while Sanders will likely get most of Elizabeth Warren’s supporters. The poll also asked voters about early voting and who they cast their early ballot for; these data suggest that early votes will skew away from Biden compared to the election-day ballots cast. The sample size was 3,376 and the margin of error is 2.3 percent (95-percent confidence interval). The data was collected via text-to-web and email-to-web from March 6th to March 8th.

The results were weighted by gender, race, age, and college degree status using a Random Iterative Model. The model’s weighting efficiency was 55 percent. The weighting efficiency was primarily driven downward by the raw sample being tilted towards those with a higher education, and slightly tilted towards white voters. RIM models correct for this by appropriately weighting groups that are under or over represented in the sample. Population estimates for the demographics were obtained through a combination of third-party provided voter-file data and exit polls.

For general inquires, contact us: polls@PointBlankPolitical.com
For statistical inquires, contact Michael Havlin: Michael@PointBlankPolitical.com